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14 August 2020 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 19:46 GMT+2



July 9, 2020

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Original news
The OECD notes an improvement in economic forecasts, but the crisis is by no means over

The CLI index remains well below the expected trend long-term

After the unprecedented monthly slump, caused by the impact production activities, consumption and confidence businesses and consumers of the effects from the coronavirus pandemic, which was recorded last May by the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI), the index processed by the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) to offer short-term forecast indication of the turning points of the economic cycles, the latest update presented today shows a recovery from the low caused by the health crisis, even though the index remains well below the long-term trend.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development explained that CLI indices for most major OECD economies have shown a sharp rebound as restrictions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic were gradually eased and the uncertainty Reduced. In particular, such a trend has been found among the major emerging economies, for example China's CLI index, where the crisis has hit first, which went back above pre-crisis levels, below the long-term trend. Instead in India, where the health crisis is far from solved, the CLI index continues to be close to a negative peak.

The OECD has specified that, in the current circumstances, CLI indices should be interpreted carefully as there remains considerable uncertainty about the impact of the current blocks transition phase after lockdowns. The OECD has reiterated that, therefore, the extent of the decline in the indices CLI should not be considered as a measure of the degree of contraction in economic activity, but rather as a an indication of the strength of the weakening signal economy.


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