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February 19, 2021
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- WTO warns that world trade rebound
may have already run out
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- Several indicators suggest that the peak could be
already been reached
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 The current continuation of the strong rebound in trade
may not last long. The warning is
World Trade Organization (WTO) which warns that the peak of
world trade may have already been achieved.
Announcing the latest reading of its trade barometer
world trade, the WTO explains that if, after the rebound in
world trade in the third quarter of last year
after the previous significant collapse caused by the effects of the
Covid-19 pandemic, the growth of trade is
continued to be consistent even in the last quarter of 2019.
2020, however, this pace is unlikely to continue in the
first half of 2021 as - specifies the WTO - the main
indicators indicate that the peak has already been
Reached. In particular, all component indices that need to be
to compose the reading of the Goods Barometer are in line with the
trend or above that but some already show signs
deceleration and others may decrease in the near future.-
- The WTO also warns that the current barometer reading
may not fully highlight the resurgence of the pandemic with
the appearance of new variants of the virus, an evolution that - underlines
the World Trade Organization - in the first quarter of
this year will undoubtedly weigh on trade.
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- Illustrating the status of some primary indices, the WTO explains that
export orders (103.4%) and products
(99.8), which - the WTO points out - are among the main
most reliable indicators of world trade - recently
they both peaked and started losing
Momentum. On the other hand, the indices of containerised transport (107.3) and
air transport (99.4) are both still growing,
although data collected more frequently suggest that the
containerised transport has deceleration since the beginning of the
of the year. In addition, the indices of electronic components (105.1) and
raw materials (106.9) are well above the
trend, but this may reflect a temporary accumulation of
Stocks. According to the WTO, these trends, as a whole,
suggest that the momentum of global trade growth
could soon peak if this is not already
been reached.
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